On the Brink of Disaster

Frustrated. Sick. Disappointed. Surprised. Angry. Baffled. Confused. Pissed.

Pick one. All those words do a pretty good job of explaining how I feel about the Cavs-Magic series right now. As I wrote in my last post, I knew Orlando would provide a very stiff test for the Cavs. They just don't match-up well with with the Magic, and it's showed over the past few years as Orlando has pretty much owned the Wine & Gold during the regular season. But, that said, I still thought the Cavs would win this series and advance on to the NBA Finals. Now? Well, obviously, I'm not so sure.

I'm keeping this short and sweet because I could easily write 10,000 words about what's gone wrong in this series (and I very well might do that when it's all said and done). For now, let's focus on a couple of glaring things:

Mo Williams

I thought Mo was fantastic during the regular season. I was pissed when he didn't make the All-Star team originally, and I was glad when he eventually was picked. I thought it was well-deserved. But that was the regular season. Mo has not been himself in the playoffs, and especially in this series. This is his first career trip through the playoffs -- and it's been a bumpy ride. I give him credit; he isn't backing down. He still goes out there every night and takes his shots. He's still playing hard. But the results definitely haven't been there. He's scoring, but it's taking him way too many shots to get his points. Here's his field goal numbers in the first four games: 6-for-19, 7-21, 5-16 and 5-15. Yikes. And it gets worse. Here's what he's done from 3-point range: 2-for-8, 1-6, 3-10 and 0-3. This is a guy who shot 47% from the field and 44% on 3's during the regular season. He looked better in Game 4 until he completely disappeared in the 4th quarter. He has to play better. Obviously.

Cavs Defense vs. the 3-Pointer

Or better yet, lack thereof. Sports are pretty simple. Take away the other team's strength and exploit their weakness. The Cavs have done neither. In case you haven't noticed, Orlando shoots the 3-ball pretty well. Well, someone might want to inform the Cavs coaching staff. The old basketball addage says that a jump-shooting team will live and die by the 3. The Magic are living quite well, thank you. You would think the Cavs would make an adjustment at some point and try to take that away. What they are doing is (clearly) not working. Orlando is getting wide open 3 after wide open 3 in this series. Hence, these numbers from 3-point range in the first four games: 9-for-20, 10-23, 6-17 and 17-38. That's 42 3-pointers made in four games. And they're shooting them at a 43% clip. That's staggering considering the amount of 3's they take. But here's the thing -- they're WIDE OPEN! They're good shooters as it is, and they're WIDE OPEN! That's what happens when you waste so much time doubling Dwight Howard. It's driving me crazy.

Dwight Howard can only score on dunks, put-backs and at the free throw line. If he gets a dunk every now and again, so be it. Last I checked 2 points is less than 3. And even though he's turned into Mark Price at the foul line the past 2 games, I'm still okay with using fouls on him and making him earn it at the stripe. Howard dominated the first half of Game 1 and he dominated the first half of Game 4. The Cavs had no answer for him inside. He scored at will. Well, guess what? The Cavs led 63-48 at the half in Game 1 and 58-50 at the break in Game 4. That's because while Howard was going off nobody else was getting many shots. That should be the Cavs' goal. Dwight Howard can't win a game by himself offensively. He's not skilled enough if you make him catch the ball 10-12 feet from the basket. But, the Magic can win games with their 3-point shooting (as they did in Game 4).

My suggestion? Quit doubling-down on Howard so much, and STOP leaving 3-point shooters to help on a guy driving to the basket. The Cavs get caught scrambling and it always leads to an open 3. Let's see if Orlando can score by beating people off the dribble and actually finishing at the rim instead of kicking out for a wide open 3. No one on their team has proven they can do that consistently other than possibly Turkoglu. You just can't give up 17 3's in a game and expect to win. Stay with the shooters!!

The Swagger is Gone

The Cavs just haven't looked like the same team in this series. Their confidence isn't what it was leading up to this serries. They -- I hate to say it -- look like they're afraid they're going to lose. Orlando is definitely in their head. The Cavs are tensing up in big moments and reverting back to "stand-around-and-watch-LeBron-mode." That's not good. They got out of that bad habit during the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs, but it's returned lately. All I know is they better find that swagger real quick or I'll be writing a 10,000-word "How did this happen?" post within the next couple of days. And no one wants that.


With all that said, and with as bad as things have looked so far -- it's not over. I'm trying to stay optimistic. We still have LeBron. Every game (other than Game 3) has been very tight and has come down to the last possession. Just as the Magic could easily have already won this series 4-0, the Cavs could just as easily be up 3-1. If the Wine & Gold take Game 5 at home Thursday (and I think they will), it all comes down to Game 6 back in Orlando. Win that, and it's back home for a Game 7 with all the momentum in the world. That's the only way to look at it now. The odds are clearly stacked against them. Teams down 3-1 in a best-of-7 series are 8-182 in NBA playoff history.

But there were those 8.

Here's hoping the Cavs are number 9.